WTO raises merchandise trade growth forecast to 3.9% as AI boom offsets hit from Middle East

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is sharply increasing its forecast for merchandise trade growth worldwide this year, more than doubling its earlier prediction to 3.9 per cent as booming AI investments offset a hit from the war in the Middle East.

The Geneva-based trade body says global trade chugged along at a hearty pace, as supply chains adapted and AI-related spending poured in to provide “a powerful boost to goods trade”.

The revised forecast marks a big jump from an initial WTO forecast in this spring for 1.9 per cent growth for merchandise trade. The figure excludes services trade. The trade body forecast growth next year of 4.1 per cent, up from 2.9 per cent predicted in March.