NASSAU, Bahamas (CMC) — Caribbean climatologist Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck is forecasting a quieter but potentially unpredictable Atlantic hurricane season this year, warning that even a below-average season could still bring devastating storms, dangerous flooding, drought, and extreme heat across the region.

Speaking at the 2026 Wet/Hurricane Season Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) in The Bahamas, he said the region is likely to experience a strong El Niño pattern, which typically suppresses hurricane activity but increases heat and weather instability.

Van Meerbeeck said the 2026 season is expected to be “erratic”, with fewer storms overall but a higher risk of intense rainfall events, flash flooding and prolonged heat waves. He forecast about five hurricanes this year, including two major hurricanes, below the seasonal average.