A developing El Niño that is forecast to get quite strong will likely dampen the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season, but it won’t make the potentially deadly storms disappear, United States federal and outside meteorologists predict.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its seasonal outlook for the Atlantic, giving a 55% chance of a below-average season.

The agency forecasts eight to 14 named storms, with three to six of them becoming strong enough to hit hurricane status and one to three of those intensifying to major hurricanes.