AS the FIFA World Cup enters its decisive stages, conversations around the world are becoming increasingly familiar. A team delivers an impressive performance and suddenly they’re favourites to lift the trophy. Another suffers a disappointing defeat and questions emerge about whether they were ever contenders at all.

It’s a natural reaction. We often place enormous weight on the most recent result, even when that result is only one moment in a much longer journey.

The truth is that one match rarely tells the whole story.