The extreme variant of the El Niño phenomenon predicted by international weather forecasts, combined with the global fertiliser crisis, poses a dual threat to rural economies, social stability, and agricultural production in Latin America and the Caribbean—a region critical to global food security.

Even separately, both factors pose enormous challenges for regional agriculture. Combined, they could become a perfect storm for millions of producers, affecting food security in quite a few nations.

Forecasts indicate a high probability of El Niño developing this year, with potentially uneven effects: heavy rains and flooding in some regions; prolonged droughts and water stress in others. The common concern is the uncertainty regarding the phenomenon’s potentially greater intensity.