With the official Atlantic hurricane forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration out, governments, insurers and property owners across the Caribbean are again confronting a difficult reality. Even a quieter hurricane season can still bring catastrophic damage to islands where housing, tourism infrastructure and coastal development remain deeply exposed.

Early forecasts from researchers and private weather agencies suggest the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season could be slightly below average, largely because of the developing El Niño effect, which historically suppresses hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin. Forecasters, however, continue to warn that uncertainty remains unusually high because sea surface temperatures across parts of the Atlantic and Caribbean are still exceptionally warm.

For Jamaica, those warnings arrive less than a year after Hurricane Melissa caused widespread destruction across sections of the island and triggered one of the country’s major catastrophe insurance mechanisms.