The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago has opted to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged at 3.50 per cent, citing a careful balancing act between a deteriorating global economic environment and persistently low domestic inflation.

The decision, announced today by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), comes against the backdrop of significant global disruption triggered by the ongoing Middle East War, which has choked energy exports and severely restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has sent oil, refined product, and fertiliser prices surging, while driving up maritime costs and dimming growth outlooks worldwide.

The International Monetary Fund now projects global growth of 3.1 per cent for 2026, a downward revision of 0.2 percentage points from its pre-war January forecast, after two consecutive years of 3.4 per cent growth. Global inflation, meanwhile, is expected to climb to 4.4 per cent this year, up from 4.1 per cent in 2025 and well above the 3.8 per cent forecast the Fund had issued before the conflict escalated.