Small and medium-size states, from the most vulnerable island nations to more diversified middle-income economies, have always faced a difficult reality. They have to navigate a world in which power is unevenly distributed and in which the decisions of larger countries can have profound consequences for their security, prosperity, and independence.

For decades, however, there was a degree of predictability in international affairs. While powerful countries exercised greater influence, there remained broad acceptance of certain principles: that sovereignty should be respected, territorial integrity protected, disputes settled peacefully, and international agreements honoured. International institutions and rules did not eliminate inequalities of power, but they helped to moderate them.

Today, that environment is less certain.